blackpoliticalanalysis

Florida, Appalachia and Everywhere in Between

2008-10-25T13:37:00.000-07:00

John McCain should win Florida. The numbers favor the GOP-standard bearer. The Sunshine State has gone Republican the last two presidential elections and it has a popular Republican incumbent. Yet, an overconfidence by Team McCain, a housing slump and massive investment by the Obama campaign has put Florida in play. If McCain loses the state, he'll regret neglecting it after he cinched the GOP nomination in the spring.

On the other hand, Team Obama has continued to press for blue-collar rural white votes in Appalachia. While I still expect McCain to win West Virginia - it is a reliably Republican state at the presidential level - I do expect Obama to outperform Kerry from '04 and Gore from '00.

Yet, the news is not all bad for the GOP. The GOP is holding its own for the myriad statehouse competitions. While the national GOP is toxic this election-cycle, national level concerns don't always trickle down to local races, where more immediate concerns like trash pickup and pothole repair dominate.

How Much Does Your Congressperson Support Their Party/Support Bush?

2008-10-24T15:52:00.000-07:00

Go to CQ.com and check out the data. They've compiled Party Unity scores (the amount a congressperson votes with his or her party) as well as Presidential Support scores (the amount a congressperson supports the president).

Analysis
Not surprising is that Congress is fairly partisan. There are relatively few moderates. For years, political scientists have worried about the declining sense of bipartisanship in Congress. This data perfectly illustrates the point.

Much of the problem lies in redistricting. What often happens is that candidates run to either the left or the right in the primary knowing they'll win an uncompetitive election in November. Many district lines are drawn in such a way to maximize either Democratic or Republican advantage. This makes the general election in November less competitive, and thus we have a system that produces more ideologues and fewer moderates.

Why Palin's Wardrobe Matters

2008-10-24T09:00:00.000-07:00

In one sense, what Gov. Palin wears to work really doesn't matter at all. Unless it is completely lewd, vulgar, or inappropriate no one really cares what anyone wears (outside their own children, of course). So, why the hubub over Palin's outfits?

Analysis
It is symptomatic of a Republican Party that courts working-class values, yet at its core, many GOP leaders do not actually share the same values as their core supporters. To many critics of the GOP, this is a perfect example of how the GOP is so successful at courting Americans to vote against their class interests. How can you have empathy for your fellow man, toiling away during an economic meltdown while you're strutting around in thousand dollar outfits? Now, the Democrats are not innocent in this matter, either. John Edwards' $400 haircuts come to mind.

The difference is Democratic policy prescriptions generally favor the working-class, Republican policy prescriptions generally favor those who have, not the have-nots. So, when I see the RNC spending $150k on Palin's outfits all I can think is, how can you have a straight face when you claim to be one of the people.

Greenspan's (sort of) Mea Culpa

2008-10-23T19:00:00.000-07:00

Even though I play one on the Internet, I'm no economist... but it doesn't really take one to recognize that, yes, in hindsight, the Federal Reserve erred in its monetary policy in the early stages of the decade.

As an individual who made a point not to buy a home when I thought homes were incredibly overvalued I tend not to have too much sympathy for homeowners who went in over their heads. But, I partly blame the Fed for this. Egregiously low interest rates for long periods of time contributed to the housing bubble.

I find it strange that Alan Greenspan, who so clearly recognize the harm from the Internet bubble, would so consciously contribute to a housing bubble. Greenspan now says, "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief." In plain language, Greenspan now says he expected the collective greed of lenders to protect the common man. Huh?

Analysis
Maybe we need psychologists running the show, because I've never heard of greedy people caring for the public good. It might also be time to rethink some economic assumptions about the utility of the unfettered marketplace.

A Photographic Journey with Obama

2008-10-23T15:08:00.000-07:00

HT to Michelle.

Go here for an excellent photo slideshow of Senator Obama. It shows him on the campaign trail, with photographer comments, over the last year. Looking at the photos of Obama, I couldn't help but notice the other people in the photographs, and the hopeful anticipation of better leadership.

In the interests of balance, I'll gladly post a photo-essay of McCain if someone sends me a link.

Arguments for McCain

2008-10-23T13:03:00.000-07:00

Over at The Atlantic, Marc Ambinder provides some arguments that Team McCain tells his supporters to keep them energized, confident, and more importantly will get them to vote. Among them, Senator Kerry led in the early vote, and many white voters that are waffling on McCain will come back to the fold. McCain better hope so, because this latest poll is bad news for McCain. It shows Obama and McCain tied for rural voters. That it is even close is somewhat shocking.

Equally important for McCain is that he isn't swallowed up by the "anti-American" backlash that threatens the GOP (see Michelle Bachmann for a primer - and GA Senator's Saxby Chambliss's reelection is no longer a sure bet.). CQ Politics has unearthed several incidents of GOP officials accusing Democrats of being anti-American. Again, just because people disagree with you on policy doesn't make them anti-American, doesn't make them a traitor, doesn't mean they ally with Al-Qaeda, it just simply means they disagree.

Singles Map

2008-10-23T12:51:00.000-07:00

HT to Ezra Klein for leading me to this fascinating map. It's an interactive map that shows where the nation's singles live, by age. A previous iteration of this map just showed all singles, aged 18-65. This, of course, gives a skewed perspective. Most folks, as you can imagine, prefer dating someone some what near their own age. This

The Business of College Sports

2008-10-23T12:39:00.000-07:00

We've known for a long time that big-time college football equals big-time bucks. Some people are comfortable with that notion (I), while others hate it. They hate that resources are diverted from education to sports, which I agree is probably not healthy. Unbeknownst to many critics is that many big-time athletic programs, those that are profitable at least, turn around and give money back to the school. UT-Austin, for instance, received $5 million from its football team. Notre Dame football's team turns over all profit to the school. Watch a short Forbes video about the subject.

Yes, many college football coaches make big bucks. Watch a short Forbes video about the subject.

Analysis
There are psychic (i.e. psychological) benefits of big sports programs.

The Business of College

2008-10-23T12:32:00.000-07:00

Says here that the credit crunch is forcing some private colleges to rethink their business model. I hate to see any college go under because academic diversity is a good thing. The more choices for students the better. That said, I'm not sure how much college education should cost - and I teach at college. I have no idea how tuition rates get set. Personally, I see nothing wrong with the local state college/university, but if you want a different experience - by all means, go for it.

Real Americans

2008-10-22T12:48:00.000-07:00

Real Americans can disagree with each other, real Americans can have opposing viewpoints on what policy prescriptions they believe are best for America. Criticizing American policy is what real Americans do. Some people might believe it is unpatriotic to criticize or complain about what the government does, but really, that is how we get the government to respond to the will of the people.

Freshman GOP Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota accused Obama, liberals and congressional Democrats of anti-American views and intimated they should be investigated for their views. The backlash has been quick and large. Her Democratic opponent Elwyn Tinkelberg raised $1 million in a matter of days after news of her comments made the rounds.

Analysis
Bachmann invited this upon herself. Accusing Obama and congressional Democrats of being anti-American is just another new low by Republicans in this campaign. To suggest that those with disagreeing views are un-Americans completely smacks of McCarthyism. It is no surprise that this type of campaigning might backfire on the GOP.